Above Asking

Market intel · weekly

Vol. I · No. 3 Palo Alto, California 5 Oct – 11 Oct, 2026 · 2026

The lead · October 7

Zillow's numbers and Palo Alto sales tell different stories. What does that mean for your home?

Zillow's index puts Palo Alto's annual growth at 5.6%, the smallest of five nearby communities. The Palo Alto homes that sold this year reached a record median price per square foot. Both are true, because they measure different things.

A Palo Alto living room: three arched openings, a stair, and a barrel-vaulted ceiling

By Maggie Ma · DRE #02117367 Read the piece →

This issue, in context

Palo Alto · 299 closed sales, 2026 so far

$2,166
Median price per square foot: Each of this year's three quarters set a new quarterly high in records going back to 1998; 70%
Sold above the original list price: 205 of the 291 sales that have a recorded original list price. Asking prices are a seller's strategy, so this is not a premium over market value; 8 days
Median days on market: The MLS figure, not elapsed time from listing to contract

Palo Alto · every single-family sale since 1998

38%
Paid all cash, 2026 so far: 114 of 299 sales. The highest share since 2016, when it was 41%; 21%
Paid all cash in 2021: The low point of the last decade, when the 30-year rate was under 3%; 74%
Sold over asking, early 2022: By the last quarter of that year it was 32%, as the 30-year rate went from 3.8% to 6.7%

An illustrative Palo Alto loan · not a loan offer

3.75%–4%
Fed target range: Raised a quarter point at the September 15–16 meeting. The minutes leave another increase open this year and commit to nothing; $20,919
Monthly payment at 6.50%: Principal and interest on a $3,309,600 loan, 30-year fixed; $23,141
The same loan at 7.50%: One percentage point higher, on the same principal and term

These figures describe the stated sample and time period. They are not a prediction for one property.

How I did this. The Zillow figures are the Zillow Home Value Index for single-family homes, middle tier (35th–65th percentile), smoothed and seasonally adjusted — the same series for all five communities and both metro areas, August 2025 to August 2026, which is the latest month Zillow publishes for cities. It describes estimated values across a community's housing stock, including homes that did not sell, and it is not the individual Zestimate shown on a property page. The sales figures are MLS records for Palo Alto single-family homes with status Sold, grouped by contract date: 299 homes that went into contract in 2026 and had closed by September 25. Homes that went into contract in 2026 but had not closed by then are not included, so no pending prices are implied. Price per square foot is each sale's price divided by its recorded living area, for homes of 400 to 20,000 square feet, then the median. The above-asking share compares the sale price with the original list price, over the 291 sales that have one recorded.

Also in this issue

Palo Alto

Nearly 4 in 10 Palo Alto buyers paid cash this year. How much do mortgage rates still matter here?

38% of Palo Alto buyers paid all cash in 2026, the highest share since 2016. The other 62% borrow — and in 2022 a fast rate jump cut over-asking sales from 74% to 32% in a single year.

Palo Alto

Higher Mortgage Rates: Should Palo Alto Sellers Change Their Plans?

The September Fed minutes, released October 7, leave another increase open before year end and commit to nothing. On an illustrative Palo Alto loan, moving from 6.5% to 7.5% adds about $2,222 a month — enough to change what a buyer will pay, and not enough on its own to decide whether you list.

End of issue

What the headlines say, and what the sales actually show · figures as recorded Print this issuePrint issue

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Above Asking

Zillow's numbers and Palo Alto sales tell different stories. What does that mean for your home?

Nearly 4 in 10 Palo Alto buyers paid cash this year. How much do mortgage rates still matter here?

Higher Mortgage Rates: Should Palo Alto Sellers Change Their Plans?

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