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Market intel · weekly

Vol. I · No. 2 Palo Alto, California 28 Sept – 4 Oct, 2026 · 2026

The lead · September 28

When tech stocks rise, what happens to Silicon Valley home prices next?

A 35-year look at Nasdaq returns against the Santa Clara and San Mateo county home-price indexes finds a real relationship — but housing moved more slowly, and by far less, than the stock market.

A bright living room opening onto its garden through a wall of glass, with the kitchen beyond

By Maggie Ma · DRE #02117367 Read the piece →

This issue, in context

Regional analysis · Santa Clara + San Mateo counties

+1.6%
The year after the Nasdaq fell: Average change in the Santa Clara and San Mateo county index, across the 8 down years in 1991–2024; +6.1%
The year after an ordinary up year: 16 years. Direction is what separates this from the row above; +6.2%
The year after it rose 30% or more: 10 years. Four times the stock return, and the same housing year

Palo Alto analysis · 13,371 sales

13,371
Palo Alto sales examined: Every single-family sale in the MLS with a contract date from 1998 to this September; 70%
Sold over asking, 2026 so far: The highest share since 2015

These figures describe the stated sample and time period. They are not a prediction for one property.

How I did this: I compared each year's change in the Nasdaq's year-end close with the change in the FHFA home price index for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties the same year, the next year and the year after. The bucket averages pair Nasdaq years 1991–2024 with the housing change in the following year, 1992–2025. The two series keep time differently and I have not pretended otherwise: the Nasdaq figure is a year-end close, while the FHFA index is an annual average of repeat sales across all price ranges. It is a county-wide measure. It is not Palo Alto, which has its own article.

Also in this issue

Palo Alto

How closely do Palo Alto home prices follow tech stocks?

I compared 13,371 Palo Alto single-family sales since 1998 with the Nasdaq. Palo Alto is markedly more responsive to tech wealth than the county data — but not predictably enough to use a stock chart as a selling calendar.

End of issue

What the headlines say, and what the sales actually show · figures as recorded Print this issuePrint issue

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When tech stocks rise, what happens to Silicon Valley home prices next?

How closely do Palo Alto home prices follow tech stocks?

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