Above Asking

Across the country, some builders and sellers are responding to higher supply and changing affordability. Palo Alto’s recent resale data looks stronger by several measures, but the comparison is not one-to-one: new-home sales, existing-home sales, geography, price bands, and reporting periods differ.

Palo Alto is showing a distinctive recent pattern. That does not make it immune to changing rates, inventory, or buyer confidence.

One note before the numbers. The national, California, and county figures use the reporting periods cited in their respective sources. The Palo Alto figures cover September 2, 2025 through September 25, 2026 unless otherwise noted.

The national picture: more supply, softer prices

New-home sales rose 6.4% in August to an annual pace of 684,000, according to the Census Bureau report covered by Inman. But prices went the other way. The average new-home price fell 8.8% from a year ago, to $478,700. The median fell 5.8%, to $393,700.

Builders have plenty to sell. There were 483,000 new homes for sale, or 8.5 months of supply. And 66% of builders offered sales incentives in September, the highest share since December.

The resale market is cooling too. NAR reported August existing-home sales at a 3.98 million annual pace, with 4.9 months of supply, the highest in over a decade. The national median rose just 1.6%, to $429,100, and 42.1% of properties saw price reductions.

In short: nationally, buyers are gaining leverage.

California and the Bay Area: a split market

California as a whole is holding steady, not surging. The California Association of Realtors put the August statewide median at $901,420, up just 0.1% from a year ago. Homes took a median of 28 days to sell, and sold at 98.9% of list price.

The Bay Area region was flat too, down 0.2% to a median of $1,272,000. But look county by county and the picture splits:

• San Mateo County: median $2.25 million, up 13.2% from a year ago.
• Santa Clara County: median $1.9 million, unchanged from a year ago, with sales down 13%.

So there is no single Bay Area story. Some counties are flat; the Peninsula’s strongest communities are the ones pulling away.

Palo Alto: the clearest exception

Palo Alto’s median sale price from January through August was $4.1 million, up 7.8% from the same months last year, according to The Almanac. That’s a sharp contrast with a flat state and a flat Santa Clara County.

I pulled every Palo Alto single-family sale from the MLS for the past 12 months: 446 homes, sold between September 2, 2025 and September 25, 2026. Here’s what those recorded sales show.

Homes sold three times faster than the state average. The median Palo Alto home sold in 9 days, versus 28 days statewide. Palo Alto buyers paid a median of 105.5% of the original list price. Statewide, homes sold at 98.9% of list. The two ratios are measured against different benchmarks — original list here, list price statewide — so read them as two pictures rather than one comparison.

Selling above asking was the common outcome, not the universal one. 68% of these Palo Alto homes sold above their original list price. One in three sold for 10% or more over asking, and about one in nine sold for 20% or more over. Nationally, 42.1% of properties saw price reductions. In Palo Alto, about one in four homes sold below its original list price. Those are two different measurements of two different things, and they are set side by side here for context rather than as a like-for-like comparison.

Prices rose across the year. The median price per square foot rose from $1,989 in October through December 2025 to $2,191 in July through September 2026, an increase of 10.2%. Spring and summer usually run stronger, so part of that is seasonal. Quarterly medians also cover different homes in different mixes, so the line describes the sample rather than a single home’s trajectory.

Why Palo Alto’s recent pattern may differ

Several structural factors may help explain the difference:

• Limited new-home competition. Palo Alto has relatively little new subdivision inventory compared with many national markets, so existing homes compete primarily with other existing homes.
• Durable sources of demand. Stanford, major employers, schools, and the broader Peninsula economy contribute to long-term demand. That demand can still change with employment, affordability, and economic conditions.
• Different financing profiles. Some Palo Alto buyers bring substantial equity or purchase with cash, while others finance. The effect of mortgage rates therefore varies from buyer to buyer.

What this means if you’re selling

1. National headlines are context, not your comparable sales. Use recent sales near your property, current competition, and the home’s condition to develop a pricing plan.
2. The market is selective. Although many recent homes sold above their original asking price, others sold below it. The result depends on pricing, preparation, presentation, buyer demand, and negotiation.
3. The higher price bands need their own analysis. Recent sales above $10 million showed a different pattern in this dataset — see my look at the rate move and the price bands. The sample is smaller, and pricing, timing, and buyer selection become especially important.
4. Launch when the home is ready. A fast median timeline makes the first presentation important, but it does not guarantee a sale within two weeks. Preparation and pricing should be based on the property and the current market.

The local market is strong—but still specific.

National conditions and Palo Alto conditions are not identical, but neither is fixed. Recent Palo Alto sales show strong demand, frequent sales above original asking, and short median timelines. They do not predict what one home will sell for.

If you are considering a sale, the useful question is how your home compares with the recent sales most relevant to it.

Discuss your property

Prefer to text? Text Maggie at 650.709.5588.